{"id":138585,"date":"2020-09-08T07:30:56","date_gmt":"2020-09-08T07:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.regenesys.net\/reginsights\/?p=138585"},"modified":"2024-06-24T16:20:41","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T10:50:41","slug":"covid-19-and-the-financial-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.regenesys.net\/reginsights\/covid-19-and-the-financial-crisis","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 and the Financial crisis: How Regenesys is coming to the rescue of business"},"content":{"rendered":"

Accessible study opportunities<\/h4>\r\n

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South Africa’s economy has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the future looks increasingly uncertain for the majority of the country’s businesses. This came on top of an economic recession prior to lockdown. Economic growth has been poor, the ratings agencies have downgraded SA\u2019s standing and unemployment has skyrocketed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

The chief executive of Pan-African Investment and Research Services, Iraj Abedian, has noted that COVID-19<\/span><\/a> dealt a crushing blow to a struggling economy, after a decade of politically orchestrated looting and plunder, that could barely stand a mild wind, let alone a hurricane.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

The Covid pandemic has exposed the weaknesses in our society. Our educational and health systems are not up to the challenge, the limited social net cannot cope, and struggling businesses have meant that less tax has been collected. Vulnerable communities in particular face a dire future. The various fiscal and monetary stabilisation measures such as direct cash transfers to households and businesses have been blighted by corruption.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Children and students have had to study from home. This has highlighted two problems. Many educational institutions were not able to pivot their operational models to online learning. This has widened the gap between the rich and the poor and has affected the opportunities for disadvantaged learners to participate in the national economy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

But the spirit of free enterprise remains vibrant, as witnessed by the escalating trade in bootleg alcohol and tobacco products, which have been banned under the lockdown. It will be a pity to let this entrepreneurial flair go to waste.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

What can South Africa do to recover from this crisis? One important action is to revise this is to scrap unnecessary regulations that get in the way of profitable small business. Another is to cut back on bloated government expenditure. The remuneration of civil servants service accounts for 45% of government revenue. These two actions will have a powerful combined effect \u2013 the numerator will increase with more tax revenue, and the denominator will decrease with a less costly state apparatus.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

We need competent ethical business people and we need an ethical, efficient state. The situation is serious -we cannot dilly dally with mediocre, half-hearted measures.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Read also: <\/strong>The dawn of the Chief Value Officer: Accountants can save the world by creating value!<\/span><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n

Dawie Roodt <\/span><\/a>of the Efficient Group and a frequent panellist at Regenesys events, has described the pandemic as a \u201cmultifaceted, nonlinear, shock to the world economy and that its repercussions will be felt in a number of ways.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

He foresees the following implications:<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Roodt says that there will also be more pressure on fiscal policy to spend more on health and on transfers to the poor, as well as support marginal companies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

He foresees that \u201c\u2026. the introduction of minimum assistance, or a basic income grant, is likely to become a permanent fixture of fiscal policy in future. Inevitably that means that the role of the state in future will be further expanded as the state becomes more aware of the (income) needs of its citizen.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Further insights into basic income grants can be found here<\/span><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n

A further consequence of the lockdown is that companies are forced to reconsider their office arrangements and their staffing models. Employees which are not contributing will face an uncertain future, adding to the mushrooming ranks of the unemployed. Work from home has become an operational reality, and this brings a decreased requirement for expensive office space. Flexible working hours will become widely accepted, with a less directive, more participative approach required for performance management.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

There will always be a future for employees who can adapt and innovate under testing conditions. A tolerance of ambiguity and a commitment to providing deliverables as opposed to performing activities will be sought after employee characteristics.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Dawie Roodt expresses it frankly and with a trace of humour: \u201cOnce workers experience the benefits of working from home, and realise that your colleagues and your boss can be a distraction in an office environment, the home of the future will be designed around the home-office worker.\u201d<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n

Annatjie van Rooyen, CEO of MyWealthInvestments <\/span><\/a>takes this view of the situation:<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u201cThe SA economy is currently in crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic but do not allow this bleak picture to destroy your dreams. This crisis too shall pass. The financial crisis in 2008 truly felt like Armageddon while traders witnessed history being made but in hindsight, the crisis presented golden opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs. Many supply chains have been broken under current lockdown restrictions but this has forced entrepreneurs to focus on new opportunities and revenue streams. Invest in yourself and your potential by educating yourself because your dreams are in reach. Online brokers have reported record inflows during the lockdown, proving that astute investors have learned a valuable lesson from previous meltdowns and subsequent recoveries in global markets.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

J. Brooks Spector<\/a>, a former US diplomat, makes the point that \u201c\u2026.there is a growing understanding and acceptance that economies and nations cannot continue to have large pools of un- or under-employed individuals with few resources while others take advantage of the benefits of the new 4IR economies. Such a situation can only lead to greater instability politically and socially.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Annabel Bishop<\/span><\/a>, Chief Economist at Investec Bank and a regular panellist at Regenesys events has this to say about our rating situation: \u201c\u2026..SA has been falling through the credit ratings increasingly quickly and is at BB from Fitch (for both its foreign and local currency ratings), while from Standard and Poor\u2019s SA\u2019s local currency rating is BB but its foreign currency (country) rating is BB-.\u00a0 The next step after BB- is single B, followed by the C grade ratings and then D, for default.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

So, the outlook is not good.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Heather Rolfe<\/span><\/a>, Director\u00a0 of Research at Demos, the international research and survey organisation says:<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u201cThe coming months and years are going to be among the most challenging in our lifetime for our economy, our society, and many of us individually. Problems of unemployment, low productivity, declining competitiveness and low innovation will be hard to resolve; harm will be inflicted on people\u2019s working and personal lives. The post-coronavirus labour market is going to be very different to the one we left behind in March.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

She continues: \u201cAs we come out of the crisis, we need a recovery strategy focused on getting people back to work, into jobs that are skilled and sustainable, in sectors we want to grow. This needs to include changes to the benefits system, to local economic planning. It also needs changes to our immigration policy which looks set to hinder recovery. It needs coordinated policies and action at national and local levels. And most of all, it needs to focus on people and skills.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

The ILO reports that worldwide, more than 436 million enterprises face high risks of serious disruption. These enterprises are operating in the hardest-hit economic sectors, including some 232 million in wholesale and retail, 111 million in manufacturing, 51 million in accommodation and food services, and 42 million in real estate and other business activities.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder<\/span><\/a> makes the point:. \u201cFor millions of workers, no income means no food, no security and no future. Millions of businesses around the world are barely breathing. They have no savings or access to credit. These are the real faces of the world of work. If we don\u2019t help them now, these enterprises will simply perish.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n

The Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit at the University of Cape Town conducted a survey on the effect of the Covid lockdown on young South Africans. This is what they found:<\/p>\r\n\r\n

More than 11 500 young people aged 18 to 35 participated. The findings emphasise the abrupt loss of income and the severely increased levels of uncertainty as a result of the pandemic, indicating how Covid-19 exacerbates existing fault lines in young people\u2019s lives.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Of those respondents who were employed before the lockdown, almost half were in precarious jobs. A whopping 69% indicated they were either no longer receiving their wages during the lockdown or paid only partly. At least 42% of those employed didn\u2019t know if they would still have a job after the lockdown, while 24% said they would not.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

In addition to the threat to their own employment, 57% indicated that they were living in a household where only one adult was earning an income during the lockdown. Lack of adult earners in households places a huge burden on the employed young people who reported that they supported at least five people on an average wage of about R5 016 per month before the lockdown.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

SALDRU<\/span><\/a> argues that current interventions are not engaging sufficiently with the complexities and linkages in young people\u2019s realities and how these affect their life chances. They argue for a multi-faceted and integrated strategy is needed to support their educational and employment transitions, recognising the interconnectedness of deprivation and seeking to support young people\u2019s agency and resilience within that context.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Importantly, the biopsychosocial model appreciates that young people need a wide range of support services to deal with many challenges or deprivations. Furthermore, a survey showed that 37% of respondents indicated that they would need free data after the lockdown, but also learning support (36%), online work or training information (33%), jobseeker support (29%) and access to a counsellor (19%).<\/p>\r\n\r\n

McKinsey<\/span><\/a>, the global management consultants, phrase the challenge like this:<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u201cBecause of their critical role in job creation and growth, protecting and enabling SMEs during this period of economic turbulence is important not least because their survival and recovery is likely to be a bellwether for the economy as a whole”.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u201cSMEs are the lifeblood of South Africa\u2019s economy\u2014and also the most at risk”.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\u201cSMEs across South Africa represent more than 98 percent of businesses, employ between 50 and 60 percent of the country\u2019s workforce across all sectors, and are responsible for a quarter of job growth in the private sector. And while the GDP contributions from South Africa\u2019s SMEs lag other regions\u201439 percent compared to 57 percent in the EU\u2014there is no doubt that this sector is a critical engine of the economy.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n

Smaller business face a number of problems which they will have to overcome:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n